According to figures from The Block Research, BTC miners recorded $1.06 billion in revenue in February 2022. In particular, block rewards ($1.05 billion) accounted for most of the revenue, and only a tiny part came from transaction fees. The total mining revenue has been trending downward for four months in a roll, and the profitability of BTC mining rigs is also nothing like before. In such a sluggish market, whether Bitcoin will fall below the shutdown price is a top concern among miners.
What is the shutdown price?
The shutdown price is an intuitive indicator of the profit and loss of a mining machine. Since electricity is consumed as the mining machine works, the electricity charged during the process constitutes the operating cost. Furthermore, when the mining profit fails to cover the electricity cost, continuing with the mining operation will only bring losses, which means that miners will have to shut down their machines. The BTC price in such cases is called the shutdown price of mining machines. You can also take it as the cost price of mining.
How to calculate the shutdown price?
The shutdown price is calculated based on the specific mining parameters, covering power consumption, hashrate, electricity price, mining difficulty of the network (hashrate), and the proportion of miner fees in the profit structure.
Based on inference, the formula for calculating the shutdown price is:
Daily mining profit = (hashrates*86,400/mining difficulty of the network/2³²) * (block rewards + miner fees)
Shutdown price = electricity price * power consumption * 24 / daily mining profit
In the case of the WhatsMiner M30S+, the power consumption and hashrate are 3,400W and 100 T, according to official figures. Here, we will assume the electricity price to be $0.075 per kilowatt-hour. Moreover, as of March 10, 2022, the latest BTC mining difficulty stands at 27.55T, the network hashrate is 191.69 EH/s, and the ratio of the miner fee to block reward is 1.3% on a monthly average. As such,
The daily mining profit = (100*24*60*60/27.55/2³²)*( 6.25+6.25*1.3%) = 0.000462 BTC
The shutdown price = 0.075*3.4*24/0.000462 = $13,246.75
In the case of Antminer S19 Pro, the power consumption and hashrate are 3,250W and 110 T. Therefore,
The daily mining profit = (110*24*60*60/27.55/2³²)*(6.25+6.25*1.3%) = 0.0005085 BTC
The shutdown price = 0.075*3.25*24/0.0005085 = $11,504.42
According to the above process, we can determine shutdown prices of some mainstream mining machines as shown below:
The current shutdown price of mainstream mining machines is around $13,000. According to the relevant data as of March 10, the BTC price fluctuates around $40,900, indicating considerable mining profits. At the current price, there is still room for mining for older models. However, outdated models with shutdown prices exceeding the latest BTC price, such as Antminer S9, AvalonMiner A821, and Whatsminer M3, are no longer suited for mining.
In addition to electricity, mining also involves costs such as O&M costs charged by the mining farm, service fees charged by the mining pool, and machine costs. Therefore, other than the shutdown price, many other costs must also be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the electricity price varies significantly in different regions, which is why shutdown prices differ from region to region.
On the whole, as long as miners manage to maintain a level of hashrates and stable block generation, most of them can still make handsome profits. The shutdown price only serves as a reference based on the current market conditions, and the actual shutdown price also fluctuates in line with the mining difficulty and electricity prices.