Within less than two weeks after 2023 started, the crypto market perked up with the total market cap edging upward and retaking $1 trillion on January 14. According to data released by Documenting Bitcoin on January 17, Bitcoin achieved a 14-day winning streak, only one step away from the record of 15 days set in November 2013. Plus, the BTC hashprice, a key indicator for Bitcoin mining, has also picked up in recent weeks.
The BTC hashprice measures the market value of hashing power per terahash, usually in US dollars, and is a major indicator for miners to determine the profit margins of mining in the current market. During the crypto bear in 2022, the BTC hashrate surged, despite the price slump. Over the past year, the Bitcoin difficulty was raised 15 times, and the hashprice took a plunge as the profit margins of mining continued to shrink.
According to TheBlock, in early 2022, the BTC hashprice plummeted from $0.26 per TH/s to $0.06 per TH/s, down 76.9%. However, since 2023 started, the figure has started to rebound and reached $0.07 on January 17, 2023.
Based on the revenue rankings of Bitcoin ASIC miners provided by ViaBTC, the daily mining revenue of some models slightly improved compared to the figures recorded on December 16 last year, thanks to the recent surge in the BTC price.
Some industry insiders believe that the BTC price rebounded because investor sentiment improved after the U.S. inflation cooled down. Over the past year, the Fed continued to release hawkish signals and hiked up interest rates seven times in a row, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points, which significantly ramped up the cost of financing across all financial markets, especially the crypto market. That said, based on the current fundamentals, it seems that the Fed is planning to slow the pace of rate rises in 2023 perhaps because of the excessive hikes last year.
This is a signal of market recovery, but we must also be careful with the traps of the bull market. After all, investor sentiment is hard to reverse. The downfall of FTX hit hundreds of crypto organizations, including top institutions holding massive crypto assets, and their bankruptcy and liquidation will devastate the crypto market. DCG Group, a company focusing on Bitcoin and blockchain technology, has recently suffered many scandals and is facing potential bankruptcy.
The bottom BTC price is hard to predict because it is affected by a wide range of factors. At the moment, Bitcoin hasn’t stabilized at the $21,000 mark, and the figure could plunge again in the event of another black swan, which would also hurt the BTC hashprice.
But in any case, the current market environment is favorable for both institutional and individual BTC miners. In the past week, the stock price of Toronto-based BTC mining company Bitfarms rose 35.2%; Marathon Digital, one of the largest miners in North America, saw an 18.7% growth in its shares; the price of shares in BTC mining company Hut 8 Mining was up 26.9%.
In light of the current market conditions, we advise investors to wait and see during the recent period. While keeping track of the Fed’s meeting calendar, crypto investors should also pay extra attention to companies that have been pushed to the verge of bankruptcy. For the crypto market, the present bear could only be reversed if the Fed stops raising interest rates.
*Disclaimer: The article offers no financial advice. Investors should remain prudent and avoid blind decision-making.